Japan seeks to increase Central Asia presence, but may find it ‘hard to drive a wedge’

Japan is attempting to boost its presence in Central Asia, driving a wedge between Central Asian countries and China, Russia with the latest plan of its Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to attend a summit with regional leaders during a tour of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Mongolia from Friday through August 12.

However, analysts believe that Japan may find it difficult to substantially disrupt relations between Central Asian countries and Russia, China. They point out that Central Asian countries, while potentially expanding cooperation with Japan, will maintain traditional geopolitical relations with Russia and maintain good economic and trade cooperation with China, including under the Belt and Road Initiative.

According to Japanese media outlets, leaders from Japan and the five Central Asian countries are expected to emphasize the importance of rule of law in a joint statement to be released after a summit meeting in Kazakhstan later this month. 

The Japan Times said that Kishida "aims to drive a wedge between these Central Asian countries and China and Russia by reiterating Tokyo's opposition to unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force."

The purpose of Kishida's visit to Central Asia is to expand Japan's diplomatic influence and geopolitical impact, said Da Zhigang, director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at the Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences.

Citing media reports claiming that at the summit, Kishida plans to announce an economic aid package which is expected to focus on establishing a trade route through the Caspian Sea, connecting Central Asia and Europe, Da said that Japan is trying to reduce Russia's influence and compete with China in high-quality cooperation. 

"Whether it is at the upcoming summit or in future actions, Japan may find it difficult to substantially disrupt relationships between the five Central Asian countries, Russia, and China," Da said, who cited the fruitful achievements on China-Central Asia economic and trade cooperation.